Decoding the map of Joe Abercrombie's Shattered Sea

Joe Abercrombie's Shattered Sea Trilogy of fantasy novels - Half a King, Half the World and the forthcoming Half a War - have been a big hit for the author. Aimed at a slightly younger audience than his First Law books, they have been shorter, more concise and more focused. They also have a distinct sense of place, a frigid land surrounding the Shattered Sea. As readers have noted, there is something very familiar about this world and the recently-published second volume leaves little doubt that this is our world in the distant future.

The Shattered Sea itself appears to be the Baltic, with the coastlines significantly altered. Large chunks of Finland appear to be underwater, Stockholm has been split off onto an island and the Gulf of Bothnia appears to have mostly disappeared. However, the map is also clearly not to scale and based around the understanding of the locals, so it might just be that the map is wildly inaccurate compared to the 'reality' of the geography in the world. The Divine and Denied Rivers are clearly the Dvina and Dnieper, and the route taken by the main characters in Half the World is pretty similar to that of real-history Viking traders and raiders who would travel as far as Constantinople (the First of Cities) via the eastern European rivers and the Black Sea (now the Golden Sea). Here's a possible mapping of the Shattered Sea locations onto a map of Europe (and many thanks to this thread on Westeros.org for the inspiration):

Other locations are more speculative, although pretty well supported by the maps and names. There are a few oddities, with Smolod sounding similar to Smolensk but being in the wrong place, but it may be that names have moved around and been corrupted with time and been applied to the wrong locations.

It'll be interesting to see if Half a War expands on the information we have and reveals more new locations.